More specifically, there is no statistical relationship between the passage of time and the percentage of black quarterback coaches or offensive coordinators. There simply is no evidence the NFL is making any progress with respect to race and the hiring of the primary decision-makers on the offensive side of the ball. This is damning, as our work demonstrates that, for the transition from offensive coordinator to head coach, there has been an equally skilled supply of black and white coordinators (as demonstrated by their performance records). It is a different story for defensive coaches. In 1992, there were only two black defensive coordinators in the NFL. Thirty years later there were 13. This was an all-time record for the league. Again, about 70%of the league’s players are black, so, the percentage of defensive coordinators who are black still doesn’t match that. Nevertheless, we are seeing more progress with respect to race on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, teams seem to prefer their head coaches to come from the offensive side. Out of 49 coordinators whomoved on to head coaching positions from2012 to 2021, 63%of these were offensive coordinators. As Dante Chinni notes: “…offensive coordinators are often singled out for being creative and inventive…” “Creative” and “inventive” are not the only terms used for white coaches, who are often described as “geniuses”. This is especially true on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, one writer argued that SeanMcVay – the white head coach of the 2022 Superbowl champion Los Angeles Rams – was so smart that the word “genius” wasn’t good enough! Black head coaches do not receive these accolades. When it comes to celebrating brilliant decision-makers – whether quarterbacks, offensive coordinators, or head coaches – black individuals are simply not often described with the same words used for white individuals. The difference in perceptions of black and white decision-makers likely drives the results we see with respect to head coaches. The first black head coach in the NFL was Art Shell. Hired by the Los Angeles Raiders in 1989, Shell’s team had a winning record in five of the next six seasons. But after going 9-7 in 1994, Shell was fired. It is quite rare for a coach to be fired with a winning record. Nevertheless, this does seem to happen far more often to black head coaches. After Shell, the NFL did hire more black head coaches. During the 2011 season, 25%of NFL head coaches were black. That mark remains the record. Across the last three seasons, the NFL has never had more than four black head coaches in a single season. Despite this recent record, our research shows the trend across time is still positive. In other words, there is a statistical link between the passage of time and the percentage of black head coaches in the NFL. We can also use the statistical relationship between time and this percentage to predict when the NFL will see racial equality among head coaches. At the NFL’s current pace, we predict 50%of the head coaches in the NFL being black in the year 2099. If you are waiting for 70%of the head coaches in the NFL to be black (i.e. a percentage that matches what we currently see for the players), then you only have to wait until 2150. All of this tells a simple story. The NFL – with teams primarily owned by white males – is not making much progress with respect to the hiring of black individuals in the primary decisionmaking roles. They are happy to hire black individuals as athletes. But when it comes to making decisions, the NFL is far from being a meritocracy. FIFTY FOUR DEGREES | 33 Professor Rob Simmons is an expert in Labour Economics and Sports Economics in the Department of Economics. Professor Dave Berri is a Professor of Economics at Southern Utah University. Dr Alex Farnell is Lecturer in Economics at Maynooth University, Ireland, and a former Lancaster PhD student. Theworkingpaper Raceand CoachingHierarchy:AnAnalysisof HiringandFiring intheNFL is authoredbyDr Alex Farnell, of MaynoothUniversity; ProfessorDave Berri, of SouthernUtahUniversity; Dr VincentO’Sullivan, of theUniversity of Limerick; andProfessor Rob Simmons, of Lancaster University Management School. r.simmons@lancaster.ac.uk
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