West Cumbria Opportunities & Challenges 2025 68 69 CHANGING POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS The populations of both Allerdale and Copeland are defined as ‘super-ageing,’ with increases in the number of people in older age groups and decreases in the number of people in younger age groups. In 2021, 32.1% of the population of Allerdale were aged 60 and over and 30.9% of the population of Copeland was aged 60 and over. This places both areas higher than the England and Wales average of 24.3%. The proportional change4 in population for adults aged 65+ between 2011 and 2021 equated to a 19% increase for Allerdale and a 17.3% increase in Copeland.5 More specifically for the 65-74 age bracket, the number of people in Allerdale rose by approximately 2,100 between 2011 and 2021, whilst in Copeland the figure rose by 1,200 over the same time period, representing an increase of 19.8%6 and 16.6%7 respectively. The five wards with the highest percentage of residents aged 65+ in 2021 were: Solway Coast (31.52%), Bothel and Wharrels (30.91%), Millom Without (30.54%), Keswick (29.33%), Gosforth (28.89%) compared to the Cumberland and England averages of 23.14% and 18.41% respectively. There are also high concentrations of older people living in rural wards, as can be seen in the map below. St Michael’s (18.32%) was the only ward in Allerdale and Copeland that had a smaller percentage of older people aged 65+ than England (18.41%).8 % Residents aged 65+(Census 2021, Electoral Wards) 0.00% - 1.86% 1.86% - 2.47% 2.47% - 3.20% 3.20% - 4.32% 4.33% - 13.33% England: 18.41% Cumberland: 23.14% 5 Wards with highest % of residents aged 65+: Solway Coast: 31.52% Bothel and Wharrels: 30.91% Millom Without: 30.54% Keswick: 29.33% Gosforth: 28.89% These changes in Allerdale and Copeland are replicated at the Cumberland level, with the trends observed since 2011 looking set to continue. The total population of Cumberland is set to decrease, with numbers of people aged 65+ set to increase. It is projected that by 2028, the total population may decrease by 900 persons (-0.3 versus England +5%) with numbers of 0–15-yearolds set to decrease by -3,400 persons (-7.2% versus England -1.6%) and numbers of 16–64-yearolds projected to decrease by 8,000 persons (-4.8% versus England +2.7%). Conversely, people aged 65+ year olds are projected to increase by 10,500 persons (+16.8% versus. England +19.6%) with the overall proportion of people aged 65+ set to increase to 26.6% (England 20.7%).9 14Census 2021 asked residents aged 5 years and over “Do you look after, or give any help or support to, anyone because they have long-term physical or mental health conditions or illnesses, or problems related to old age?” People were asked to exclude anything they did as part of their paid employment. Topic Summary Briefing Health, Disability and Unpaid Care at Census Day 2021: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory, 2021, https://cumbria.gov.uk/elibrary/Content/Internet/536/671/4674/17217/17220/44957112549.pdf 15Age UK, Loneliness and Covid-19, December 2021, https://www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/consultation-responses-and-submissions/health- -wellbeing/loneliness-and-Covid-19---december-2021.pdf Super-ageing populations place challenges on wider economic, social and community life. An ageing workforce drives a demand for replacement by a new, younger workforce10 which for West Cumbria is challenging given declining younger population rates and outward migration of potential workers. Similarly housing stock, including sheltered housing provision is limited for those older people who are no longer able to live independently. In addition, older people have greater demands for personal health and social care at a time when there are less people in the working age population to provide that care.11 For example, the number of directly employed care staff working in care homes across Cumberland has reduced by 17% since 2021.12 In the 2021 Census, 9,000 residents (9.8%) in Allerdale and 6,500 residents of Copeland (10.1%) answered that they provide unpaid care to people with long-term physical or mental health conditions or illnesses or problems related to old age. This is higher than the average rates observed in Cumbria (9.4%) and England and Wales (8.9%).13 Percentage of people providing Unpaid Care at Census Day 202114 Area Name Provides unpaid care (number) Provides unpaid care (%) Provides unpaid care 1-19 hrs per week (%) Provides unpaid care 20-49 hrs per week (%) Provides unpaid care 50 or more hrs per week (%) Allerdale 9,000 9.8% 4.8% 2.0% 3.0% Copeland 6,500 10.1% 4.5% 2.2% 3.4% Cumbria 44,800 9.4% 4.7% 1.8% 2.8% England and Wales 4,989,000 8.9% 4.3% 1.8% 2.7% LONELINESS AND ISOLATION Loneliness is identified as a particular risk for older people. This is less to do with age itself but rather the reduced opportunity to engage in meaningful conversations and interactions often as a result of bereavement, living alone, dealing with disability or illness or caring for a partner. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated levels of loneliness with many older people reporting they were anxious, depressed, and fearful about the future.15 There is an adverse impact on health and wellbeing from persistent and prolonged exposure to feeling lonely. Loneliness increases the likelihood of early death and poor physical health; there is also at greater risk of poor mental health including depression.16 HEALTH CONCERNS Throughout the world, the Covid-19 pandemic exposed inequalities in the social determinants of health. Overall, the Northwest had the second highest regional cumulative Covid-19 case rate in England. Although Allerdale and Copeland saw mortality rates lower than their neighbouring areas, nevertheless rates were high, including for females where mortality rates were higher than England averages.17 Over the three years to February 2023, the UK’s excess death rates (where there are more deaths than expected) went up by more than 5%.18 Ageing brings a range of health concerns for older people including cardiac, respiratory and cancer related conditions. It is worth noting that in Cumberland in 2023/2024, 425 people aged 65 and over had hip fractures (645 people per 100,000 population) higher than the England average of 547 people per 100,000 of the population.19 16Health Survey for England, 2021 part 2, Loneliness and Wellbeing: Office for National Statistics, 2021, https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2021-part-2/loneliness-and-wellbeing 17A Hopeful Future: Equity and the Social Determinants of Health in Lancashire and Cumbria: Institute of Health Equity, 2022. 18BBC article Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers Published 5 July 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 19Injuries and Ill Health: Fingertips Public Health Data, Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/health-profiles#page/1/gid/1938132695/pat/15/ati/501/are/E06000063/iid/93754/age/1/sex/4/cat/-1/ctp/-1/yrr/1/cid/4/tbm/1
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