Transforming Tomorrow 6 Professor Gail Whiteman became the first Director of the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business in 2015 and brought with her ICE-ARC (Ice, Climate, Economics and the Arctic Research on Change). ICE-ARC was a four-year European-funded project, looking at current and future changes in Arctic sea-ice and its interrelations with changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and aiming to gain a better understanding of Arctic marine change and its global consequences. It brought together indigenous people from Northwest Greenland, natural and social scientists from across Europe, and the British Antarctic Survey. The Pentland Centre team led work on the climatic impact of Arctic shipping, climate policy implications of Arctic-related tipping points, and correlations between Arctic sea-ice loss and global agricultural risks. The project successfully improved understanding of: • scientific models of sea-ice and climate models; • the impact of atmospheric pollutants on marine ecosystems and agriculture; • the economic impact of changes to Arctic shipping routes; • and the links between marine ecosystem changes and human movement. Professor Whiteman also had an idea for an innovative science communications platform, Arctic Basecamp. This would recreate a working Arctic science camp from which experts on Arctic change could connect with influential people, to ensure an understanding of the risks and opportunities of Arctic change at the highest level. The ICE-ARC project brought this idea to life. The first Arctic Basecamp took place in Davos in 2017, running alongside the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting. Alongside scientific input, there were speeches from former US Vice President Al Gore and Christiana Figueres (former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). When ICE-ARC ended in Dec 2017, Professor Whiteman continued Arctic Basecamp, establishing it as a Davos fixture. In 2018, the team partnered with Mission 2020, the UN Global Goals and Project Everyone to move to a new site at Berghotel Shatzalp, and delivered a WEF Global Shapers Briefing and a ‘Fireside Chat’ for scientists and business leaders. The event continued to attract support from Christiana Figueres, as well as scientists such as Professors Julienne Stroeve, Johan Rockström and Jennifer Francis, and high-profile artists and entertainers, including Ellie Goulding and Rainn Wilson. In 2019, Basecamp hosted a wide range of science and business speakers, as well as youth climate activist Greta Thunberg. Building on that connection, in 2020 a team of young climate activists were invited from around the globe for conversations with climate scientists. Also in 2020, Professor Whiteman participated in a panel discussion alongside Sanne Marin (then Prime Minister of Finland), Al Gore, and Scott Minerd (Guggenheim Investments), and presented What’s at Stake: The Arctic. In 2020, Professor Whiteman moved on to a new role at Exeter University, and the Arctic Basecamp Foundation became a separate non-profit organisation under her leadership. It continues to hold events at Davos and beyond, and has co-developed Climate Risks Daily, an AI-powered tool highlighting the scale of climate impacts from extreme weather and the health impacts of climate change. ICE-ARC Dr Dmitry Yumashev joined the Pentland Centre as a Postdoctoral Researcher in August 2015 as part of the ICE-ARC project. He explains his work as lead author on a paper investigating global risks of Arctic permafrost decline. The work goes back to around 2013, when Gail Whiteman teamed up with researchers from Cambridge for a comment piece in Nature on the risks posed by the potential emissions of methane from subsea permafrost in the Arctic. The work produced more accurate interpretations of the uncertainties and the risks for the melting permafrost, sea-ice and other Arctic tipping points. Working through the Pentland Centre, we connected with networks in Lancaster Environment Centre, maintained our European-wide networks, and developed American connections. We worked with experts in permafrost, climate modelling, climate policy and economics modelling. The project identified that land permafrost was likely to be an ‘elephant’ in the room because it was not represented in the climate models and could lead to the biggest unaccounted impacts. The paper Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements was published in Nature Communications in April 2019. It estimated additional long-term global economic impact from the Arctic tipping points to be almost $70 trillion, higher than in existing assessments. The research featured in the Guardian, on the World Economic Forum, and many other media outlets as well as exposure to various forums and decision-makers. This included the Environmental Audit Committee in the UK Parliament in Summer 2018. I am now principal consultant at Small World Consulting, a climate consultancy firm based in Lancaster Environment Centre, and also advise the Arctic Basecamp Foundation. The paper and the ICE-ARC project helped me transition to this career. I use all the experience I gained through the Pentland Centre in my work. Pictures show (from top) Arctic Basecamp 2017; L-R: Professor Gail Whiteman, Former US Vice President Al Gore, Professor Konrad Steffen, Dr Jeremy Wilkinson and Arctic Basecamp Youth Delegates 2020; L-R: Wenying Zhu, Kaime Silvestre, Vanessa Nakate, Brix Whiteman Muller, Eva Jones. Photo: © Henry Iddon
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