We estimate that around 900,000 retail workers would not qualify for any redundancy pay if they lost their job, and approximately 400,000 retail workers will not be eligible for Statutory Sick Pay should they become unwell or need to self-isolate. When we look to the future, it is highly likely that the sector will employ significantly fewer people than it does today, in jobs that look quite different to those that have been traditionally associated with retail businesses. In part this is due to the pandemic fundamentally accelerating preexisting trends that have put so many high streets across the country under pressure in recent years – in particular, the shift to online shopping, with online purchases doubling as a proportion of total sales during the lockdown period earlier this year. With public health concerns and restrictions likely to remain for the foreseeable future, and many predicting higher levels of home working will be sustained beyond the immediate crisis, high street retailers have already begun toannounce significant jobs cutsas they seek to adapt their operating models to these new consumer behaviours and working patterns. And our research highlights that these job cuts are impacting some groups of workers disproportionately. For example, since the beginning of the crisis some 80,000 women have lost their job in the sector, reflecting the fact that women have tended to occupy lower-paid, routinised retail roles – the kinds of jobs that have been disappearing in recent years and are likely to continue to disappear in the future. While it is true that this shift to online retail will see new jobs created, other social and economic factors mean it is doubtful that those who stand to lose their roles in store will access them. New retail roles are overwhelmingly likely to be in warehousing, logistics, and delivery functions, ensuring goods ordered online reach customers, meaning they will primarily be located near to major motorway nodes. This is a far cry from customer-facing roles located close to home and which allow for the balancing of part-time employment with other family responsibilities. Although the Government’sWinter Economy Planand subsequent announcements represent significant steps forward in recognising the severity of the ongoing challenges facing businesses and workers across the country, in truth, many retailers in areas facing tier 2 or tier 3 restrictions may struggle to bring those who have been furloughed back to work for even afifth of their usual hours in order to qualify for the Job Support Scheme. This means that tens of thousands of retail workers across the country are facing the prospect of unemployment in the months ahead. Looking at the economy as a whole, there have already been substantial changes since March, with August HMRC PAYE data showing that there were already 695,000 fewer people on payroll, and insolvency service data showing that at least 498,000 redundancies have been planned. Given there remain just half of the vacancies in the economy that existed between December 2019 and February 2020, competition to re-enter the labour market is going to befierce. At this stage of the crisis it is clear that further interventions will be required to support those who lose their jobs over the Winter, as well as investment to drive the jobs creation that will be essential for recovery through 2021 and beyond. Ben Harrisonis Director of the Work Foundation. No Returns: a newdirection to tackle insecurity in retail following COVID-19 , was co-authored by The Work Foundation’s Dr Olivia Gable, Rebecca Florisson, Trinley Walker and Melanie Wilkes. b.harrison1@lancaster.ac.uk FIFTY FOURDEGREES | 17 ʼʼ August HMRC PAYE data shows that there were already695,000fewer people on payroll, and insolvency service data shows that at least498,000 redundancies have been planned. ʻʻ
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