mean workers whose employment commences from 1 July 2026 will be covered by the reforms. Both workers and businesses have a clearer picture. REGULATING ZERO-HOUR CONTRACTS The Bill also proposes a new right for zero-hour contract workers to receive a contract reflecting the hours they regularly work, based on a reference period likely to be around 12 weeks. Here too, the detail matters. Extending the reference period – for example to six months – would reduce the number of people who benefit. In sectors where zero-hour contracts are common, such as retail and social care, these choices could have consequences for the future job security of hundreds of thousands of workers. A POTENTIAL STEP-CHANGE Taken together, our analysis suggests that had reducing unfair dismissal to a six-month period and implementing a 12-week guaranteed hours reference period been in place in 2023, the impact would have been substantial. The number of workers in severely insecure work would have fallen by 1.2 million, from 6.8 million (21.4%) to 5.6 million (17.7%), a 3.7 percentage point reduction. Most strikingly, the proportion of workers in secure jobs would have risen from 44.1% (13.9 million) to 56.7% (17.8 million). In total, 3.85 million more workers could have accessed secure employment under this strengthened framework. KEY REFORMS Insecurity tends to be concentrated among specific worker groups and sectors. Previous Work Foundation research has shown that young workers, women, disabled workers and Black and Asian workers are disproportionately exposed to insecure employment. Certain sectors, particularly retail and social care, also experience high levels of severe insecurity. Our research suggests that the groups most likely to experience insecure work also stand to benefit the most from the new rules. For instance, sectoral impacts could be substantial. In retail, the severe insecurity rate would have dropped by 6.4 percentage points – from 45.3% to 38.9%. Around 160,000 retail workers would have moved into low or moderate insecurity, while a further 150,000 would have entered secure employment. In social care, severely insecure work would have fallen by 11.5 percentage points, from 32% to 20.5%. The proportion of workers in secure roles would have risen by 11 percentage points, from 30.8% to 41.8%. Improving security of work in these foundational sectors could provide important social and economic benefits. NAVIGATING CRITICAL POLICY CHOICES The Employment Rights Act is an important opportunity to reset the power dynamic between workers and employers and increase job security for millions of low-paid and precarious workers. However, our analysis highlights that there are still important decisions to be made on secondary legislation which will ultimately impact how reforms are implemented in practice. The UK Government must be proactive during the rollout of the Act over the next two years to close policy loopholes and mitigate the risk of displacement towards other forms of insecure work. Our research indicates that policy design matters, and it is vital to provide clarity and support for employers as the new rules are implemented. If done well, the Employment Rights Act could mark a decisive step towards a more secure, inclusive and productive labour market. FIFTY FOUR DEGREES | 25 Rebecca Florisson is Principal Analyst with the Work Foundation at Lancaster University. The report Increasing Job Security: The Potential Impact of Employment Rights Reforms in the UK was authored by Rebecca Florisson for the Work Foundation. r.florisson@lancaster.ac.uk
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