As we stand a quarter way through the 21st century, we are witnessing rapid advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), changing demographics and, alongside these, climate change. Taken together, these are reshaping our social expectations not only about how work is done but, also, who does it, where this work is done and how it is valued. To the fore in public debate is automation and the envisaged job displacement. But underpinning this there is a much deeper transformation embedded in the interaction between technology, labour and unpaid care. It is the juxtaposition of these that will shape the future of work. Our understanding of the challenges society faces requires that we move away from the popular, but narrow, focus on productivity towards a much broader view of work, which sees it as part of a social system. TECHNOLOGY AND TASK TRANSFORMATION Although technological development has always brought about change to labour markets, the speed and scope of the current wave of digitalisation is unprecedented. AI, machine learning and automation are no longer confined to routine tasks. These tools are found in professional, administrative and cognitive work, including accounting, legal work, medical diagnostics and teaching. Crucially, technology does not eliminate jobs, it simply reconfigures tasks. Workers will increasingly combine human judgement, emotional intelligence and contextual reasoning with algorithmic tools. This task-based transformation will favour adaptable workers but there is a risk of polarisation between high-skill, highautonomy roles and low-paid tightly monitored service work. LABOUR SUPPLY Another driver of the future of work, one that is frequently underappreciated, is demographic change. In the UK and other advanced economies, rising longevity coupled with declining fertility are increasing the demand for health and long-term care, while reducing the growth of the working age population (read more about this in the article by Dr Qisha Quarina). The result is a structural increase in the demand for labour in care-intensive sectors alongside economy-wide labour supply constraints. Care work is pivotal in the future of work. This work is relatively resistant to automation yet remains low-paid and suffers from high turnover. Care provision remains underfunded and where there is unmet demand, care reverts to households and, disproportionately, to women. If care continues to be treated as a private responsibility, labour market inequalities – particularly gender inequalities – are likely to widen. Women are more likely to reduce hours, exit employment, or accept lower-quality jobs to accommodate care responsibilities. Conversely, policies that invest in childcare, care of the elderly, and flexible but secure working arrangements can expand labour supply, raise productivity, and reduce inequality. REMOTE AND HYBRID WORKING The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of remote and hybrid working arrangements, revealing that many jobs previously assumed to require a physical presence can be performed effectively at a distance. While not universal – care, hospitality, and manufacturing remain place-based – remote work has permanently altered expectations for a substantial share of the workforce. This shift has implications for urban 8 |
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