13 Virtual Brochure – March 2025 Commentary on significant and increasing risks 1.5 Macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainty ppt compared to 2024 After a huge leap in the ranking of geopolitical risks in the 2023 ECIIA survey in response to consequences of the war in Ukraine, European businesses’ perceptions of risks arising from macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty have fallen back this year from third to fifth overall - although the survey was undertaken before the US presidential election. The fall in ranking is linked to Europe-wide reductions in the rate of inflation, improving the economic conditions for business. However, overall scores remain high due to the impacts of conflicts in the Middle East, risks of hostilities erupting elsewhere, and growing risks from the deliberate undermining or disruption of businesses and supply chains by foreign actors. To mitigate risks, businesses are updating and reviewing stress testing, scenario planning and business continuity plans to reflect a wider range of potential disruption. Robust and agile governance is singled out as a key competence for building resilience, alongside financial sustainability and strong cyber defenses. Considerations for HE few UK institutions specifically call out geopolitical risks in their strategic risk registers. Where they do so, risks and mitigating actions focus on supporting staff and students whose countries or allies are involved in conflicts, strengthening planning around the management of demonstrations and processes, and reviewing investment policies. It is likely that similar risks, and those relating to staff and students working overseas, are captured at an operational level. While risks to international student recruitment tend to be identified separately, it is surprising that risks about illicit attempts to access research, intellectual property and data do not feature more highly on strategic risk registers. We encourage institutions to: - Produce an annual report for governing bodies on security risks and adopt good practice recommended by UUK 5 - Consider how geopolitical factors influence other strategic risks and how this is integrated in risk registers - Work with a broad range of individuals from outside of the HE sector to inform scenario planning and ensure that planning is sufficiently wide-ranging and long term - Stress test strategic assumptions and scenarios to take account of potential international conflict and economic volatility - Regularly review and test business continuity plans. 4 https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/topics/funding-financeand-operations/security-and- -4
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