30 Virtual Brochure – February 2024 F) Market changes, competition and changing consumer behaviour. This is a new risk area in the 2024 survey. Respondents rated this 9th out of 16 risks and felt that risks in this area were likely to increase over the next three years. This view is grounded in a belief that customer behaviour is becoming less predictable and market dynamics more uncertain as result of the impacts of higher inflation and interest rates, coupled with the growing impact of disruptive technologies, the “deglobalisation” of supply chains, and geopolitical turmoil. The report also notes a “decoupling from traditional corporate values”, suggesting that past consumer behaviour may no longer be an accurate predictor of future demands for goods and services. Considerations for HE While domestic demand for HE remains strong, initial data from the 2023 recruitment cycle6 suggests that the proportion of UK 18-year-olds choosing HE has declined, while the competition for these students remains 6 https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-andreports/statistical-releases-daily-clearing-analysis-2023 intense. There is initial evidence7 that the cost of living crisis, and perhaps other factors, are beginning to put a brake on home demand. We observe that almost every institution is seeking to grow its population of international taught postgraduate students, and that risks about overreliance on certain international markets, UK policy changes, and the growing competition for international students are increasingly appearing on strategic risk registers. While student recruitment risks tend to be effectively reflected in strategic risk registers, changing circumstances may necessitate additional or more regular scrutiny. Issues to consider: - To what extent is your institution financially reliant on tuition fee income from international students? Are the risks in this area appropriately assessed and scrutinised? - How effective is your institution in promoting the career destinations of home and international graduates? - How effectively are potential changes in prospective students’ motivations and behaviours being captured in real time (rather than relying on historical data), and how rapidly can your institution respond? 7 https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2023/06/22/student-experience-academic-survey2023/
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