Higher Education Strategic Risk Analysis Report 2025/26 12 2.2 Student recruitment ranked 2nd inherent, ranked 1st residual Risk findings: Student recruitment risks feature on every institutional risk register, either directly or as a component of financial sustainability risks, and this year tops the list of sector residual risks. This compares to sixth place in 2024/25 and reflects even tougher competition for home students, and growing competition for international students, changes to the UK visa and post-study work regime, and wider perturbations in international recruitment markets. It should come as no surprise that average inherent and residual risk scores have increased, and this is a consistent pattern across institutions. Institutional confidence in mitigating recruitment risks varies significantly, in all likelihood reflecting factors such as market position and competitors, geography, brand, and operational effectiveness. As in recent years, student recruitment risks are almost entirely conceptualised in terms of failure to meet desired recruitment targets and/or recruit the right number of the “right” students. Mitigations and controls vary depending on market position, extent of reliance on agents, and recent recruitment success. Risks are increasingly disaggregated to detail mitigations for the recruitment of specific cohorts of students. Typical mitigations include: • Greater focus on portfolio review and changes to course content and/or modes of delivery, with increasing emphasis on embedding workplace skills and employment opportunities; • Changes to entry requirements, offer, contextual offer and targeted conversion strategies; • More detailed forecasting and scenario planning, tightly linked to financial plans; • Tighter and more granular monitoring of recruitment and enrolment data with more agile marketing strategies making greater use of real time data and insight; • Diversification of international markets and recruitment channels, including strengthening controls on use of agents; • Refresh of scholarship schemes and changing deposit requirements; and • Driving further process efficiency to speed decision-making.
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