13 Risk commentary and recommendations: Income from student tuition fees is the primary revenue stream for most universities. While a record number of students were accepted into UK HE in 2025 via UCAS4, the entry rate for UK 18 year olds continues to fall back, likely in response to cost of living challenges and changing perceptions about the value of a degree and concerns about debt. Analysis of enrolment data5 points to significant changes in recruitment strategies in 2025, with some larger, research intensive institutions taking in excess of 20% more undergraduate students. This has had knock-on consequences for local competitors and institutions with typically lower entry requirements, who have been unable to realise home recruitment targets. In the medium term, the decline in the number of 18 year olds in the UK population after 20306 is likely to create a further recruitment squeeze. While demand for internal higher education is growing, international student recruitment is increasingly volatile7 in the face of strong competition from a growing range of global study destinations. The cost of studying in the UK is high compared to many European countries, there are dependent visa restrictions, and there is a planned reduction in the duration of the post-study period to 18 months from 2027, all of which act to supress demand. The introduction of the new international student levy from August 2028 will increase the cost burden further (for students and/or for institutions), while the new tier 4 sponsor thresholds (active from September 2025) may act to supress diversification and drive up competition for students from established markets. Coupled with signals of a fundamental shift in international students’ study patterns8, these changes increase the likelihood that institutions may struggle to meet international recruitment forecasts. While in-year recruitment data and forecasts, competitor information, and details of recruitment strategies are shared with governing bodies and finance committees, the level and detail of information provided to audit Committees about recruitment risks and controls is often limited. We recommend that Audit Committees should: • Ensure that student recruitment risks are appropriately disaggregated in the strategic risk register e.g. by home and international, different types of provision or locations; • Challenge and test the assurance around short, medium and longer term recruitment forecasting models, in light of OfS’ assessment that many financial forecasts are still based on overoptimistic recruitment models; • Be confident in where and how second and third line assurance is provided on key controls and address any gaps. Key controls include: accurate market intelligence; forecasting models; pricing; the design and effectiveness and efficiency of marketing, recruitment and admissions functions and processes; UKVI compliance; and the use of agents; and • Discuss student value for money reporting, particularly how assurance is provided on the accuracy and completeness of data on student outcomes, and breadth and coverage of case studies across the student experience and employment destinations. This should include consideration that the value of a degree and return on investment is integrated into content for prospective students. 4 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/ 5 https://wonkhe.com/blogs/ucas-end-of-cycle-2025-providerrecruitment-strategies/ 6 https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2024/10/24/the-coming-decline-in-thenumber-of-18-year-olds-makes-the-future-bleak-for-some-universities 7 https://wonkhe.com/blogs/the-international-recruitment-market-ischanging-and-international-education-strategies-will-need-to-changewith-it/ 8 https://wonkhe.com/blogs/responding-to-the-internationaleducation-strategy-requires-an-appreciation-of-how-fast-the-world-ischanging/
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